Real things I've been wrong about:
The team I was sure would win the Super Bowl
The smart investment move
The right speed to navigating a curvy road
So how did I get to these wrong conclusions? A simple model:
Facts
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(Leads to)
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Conclusion
I think that's a bit too simple. If you give two people the same facts they often come to very different conclusions. Why?
Maybe it's context? General philosophies in which we organize and make sense of individual facts.1
Facts
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(Seen through)
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General Philosophies/Frame of Reference/Schema
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(Leads to)
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Conclusion
This assumes the "rational observer". I am NOT. A more realistic model:
Facts
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(Seen through)
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General Philosophies/Frame of Reference/Schema
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(Affected by)
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Personal Desires
|
(Leads to)
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Conclusion
Therefore, a conclusion (including this one!) is so separated from fact that it's basically a question without the question mark. In essence I think a conclusion is a hypothesis. Something to test:
Hypothesis: The team I was sure would win the Super Bowl
Test: The Game
Result: The other team won (just barely!)
Hypothesis: The smart investment move
Test: Moved my 401k from stocks to bonds
Result: I made 1%! (but missed out on a 20% gain when the market recovered--oops)
Hypothesis: The right speed to navigating a curvy road
Test: Cruising along...
Result: Slid off the road, one bent the axle, one more careful driver
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